@article {1456, title = {Association of weather variables with pathogens contributing to conjunctivitis worldwide.}, journal = {Clin Infect Dis}, year = {2024}, month = {2024 Aug 19}, abstract = {

PURPOSE: To identify weather variables associated with pathogens contributing to infectious conjunctivitis globally.

METHODS: Sample collection and pathogen identification from patients with acute infectious conjunctivitis was performed from 2017 to 2023. We linked pathogens identified from 13 sites across 8 countries with publicly available weather data by geographic coordinates. Mixed effects logistic regression analysis was performed to estimate the associations between temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity exposures, and the prevalence of infection types (RNA virus, DNA virus, bacteria, and fungus).

RESULTS: 498 cases from the United States, India, Nepal, Thailand, Burkina Faso, Niger, Vietnam, and Israel were included in the analysis. 8-day average precipitation (mm) was associated with increased odds of RNA virus infection (odds ratio (OR)=1.47, 95\% confidence interval (CI): 1.12 to 1.93, P=0.01) and decreased odds of DNA infection (OR=0.62, 95\% CI: 0.46 to 0.82, P\<0.001). Relative humidity (\%) was associated with increased odds of RNA virus infections (OR=2.64, 95\% CI: 1.51 to 4.61, P\<0.001), and fungal infections (OR=2.35, 95\% CI: 1.19 to 4.66, P=0.01), but decreased odds of DNA virus (OR=0.58, 95\%CI: 0.37 to 0.90, P=0.02) and bacterial infections (OR=0.42, 95\% CI: 0.25 to 0.71, P\<0.001). Temperature ({\textdegree}C) was not associated with ocular infections for any pathogen type.

CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that weather factors affect pathogens differently. Particularly, humidity and precipitation were predictors for pathogens contributing to conjunctivitis worldwide. Additional work is needed to clarify the effects of shifts in weather and environmental factors on ocular infectious diseases.

}, issn = {1537-6591}, doi = {10.1093/cid/ciae417}, author = {Yan, Daisy and Prajna, N Venkatesh and Lalitha, Prajna and Sansanayudh, Wiwan and Satitpitakul, Vannarut and Laovirojjanakul, Wipada and Chaudhary, Meenu and Bountogo, Mamadou and Sie, Ali and Coulibaly, Boubacar and Amza, Abdou and Nassirou, Beido and Almou, Ibrahim and Tran, Huy and Tran, Yen and Tsui, Edmund and Onclinx, Tania and Sella, Ruti and Goren, Lee and McClean, Esmeralda and Tham, Vivien and Chen, Cindi and Ruder, Kevin and Zhong, Lina and Liu, YuHeng and Yu, Danny and Abraham, Thomas and Lebas, Elodie and Arnold, Benjamin F and McLeod, Stephen D and Deiner, Michael S and Porco, Travis C and Seitzman, Gerami D and Lietman, Thomas M and Shantha, Jessica and Hinterwirth, Armin and Doan, Thuy} } @article {1371, title = {Use of Large Language Models to Assess the Likelihood of Epidemics From the Content of Tweets: Infodemiology Study.}, journal = {J Med Internet Res}, volume = {26}, year = {2024}, month = {2024 Mar 01}, pages = {e49139}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Previous work suggests that Google searches could be useful in identifying conjunctivitis epidemics. Content-based assessment of social media content may provide additional value in serving as early indicators of conjunctivitis and other systemic infectious diseases.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether large language models, specifically GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 (OpenAI), can provide probabilistic assessments of whether social media posts about conjunctivitis could indicate a regional outbreak.

METHODS: A total of 12,194 conjunctivitis-related tweets were obtained using a targeted Boolean search in multiple languages from India, Guam (United States), Martinique (France), the Philippines, American Samoa (United States), Fiji, Costa Rica, Haiti, and the Bahamas, covering the time frame from January 1, 2012, to March 13, 2023. By providing these tweets via prompts to GPT-3.5 and GPT-4, we obtained probabilistic assessments that were validated by 2 human raters. We then calculated Pearson correlations of these time series with tweet volume and the occurrence of known outbreaks in these 9 locations, with time series bootstrap used to compute CIs.

RESULTS: Probabilistic assessments derived from GPT-3.5 showed correlations of 0.60 (95\% CI 0.47-0.70) and 0.53 (95\% CI 0.40-0.65) with the 2 human raters, with higher results for GPT-4. The weekly averages of GPT-3.5 probabilities showed substantial correlations with weekly tweet volume for 44\% (4/9) of the countries, with correlations ranging from 0.10 (95\% CI 0.0-0.29) to 0.53 (95\% CI 0.39-0.89), with larger correlations for GPT-4. More modest correlations were found for correlation with known epidemics, with substantial correlation only in American Samoa (0.40, 95\% CI 0.16-0.81).

CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that GPT prompting can efficiently assess the content of social media posts and indicate possible disease outbreaks to a degree of accuracy comparable to that of humans. Furthermore, we found that automated content analysis of tweets is related to tweet volume for conjunctivitis-related posts in some locations and to the occurrence of actual epidemics. Future work may improve the sensitivity and specificity of these methods for disease outbreak detection.

}, issn = {1438-8871}, doi = {10.2196/49139}, author = {Deiner, Michael S and Deiner, Natalie A and Hristidis, Vagelis and McLeod, Stephen D and Doan, Thuy and Lietman, Thomas M and Porco, Travis C} } @article {906, title = {Keeping an eye on pink eye: a global conjunctivitis outbreak expert survey.}, journal = {Int Health}, year = {2021}, month = {2021 Aug 19}, abstract = {

BACKGROUND: Recurrent conjunctivitis epidemics are prevalent worldwide. Aetiologies are often undetermined.

METHODS: We surveyed conjunctivitis researchers about perceived trends in prevalence, incidence and aetiologies of conjunctivitis epidemics.

RESULTS: Of the 155 participants, 7\% endorsed globally variable and dynamic microbial aetiologies of conjunctivitis epidemics. Increased incidence of conjunctivitis epidemics over the last decade were reported by 21\% of respondents. Peak seasons differed between the northern and southern hemispheres.

CONCLUSIONS: There is regional equipoise regarding the increasing incidence and emerging underlying aetiologies of epidemic conjunctivitis. Further investigation of global surveillance and microbial characterization of conjunctivitis outbreaks could improve prevention and outcomes.

}, issn = {1876-3405}, doi = {10.1093/inthealth/ihab049}, author = {Kaur, Gurbani and Seitzman, Gerami D and Lietman, Thomas M and McLeod, Stephen D and Porco, Travis C and Doan, Thuy and Deiner, Michael S} }